GP Short Notes

GP Short Notes # 515, 9 May 2021

Russia: Alexi Navalny's network added to the 'Extremist List'
Harini Madhusudan

What happened?
On 4 May, changes to the election law in Russia were submitted to the lower house of Duma, which seeks to ban people linked to terrorist or extremist organizations from running for office. It includes anyone in the hierarchy of extremist groups, including the financial donors or individuals who played a role up to three years before the court ruling.  

On 30 April, Russia's state financial watchdog Rosfinmonitoring blacklisted Alexi Navalny's political network as a 'terrorist-linked organization, which means authorities can choose to block the organization's bank accounts at will. A court ruling to ban the network's crowdfunded work, and name Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK), as an "extremist" organization is expected in June, which would further restrict the party's 50 regional headquarters from operating and potentially put members and supporters at risk of lengthy jail terms. "We've seen a lot of 'laws against Navalny,' but this is something new," tweeted Navalny's senior aide Leonid Volkov. However, he says, the "extremism" court ruling will not affect the team's "Smart Voting" strategy that seeks to unseat the pro-Putin ruling party in the upcoming parliamentary elections. 

What is the background?
First, Putin's consolidation of power within Russia. Putin has remained the central authority figure of Russia since 2000. In early 2020, he announced a number of constitutional amendments in his annual address at the Federal Assembly. An amendment allows two more terms for Putin's rule until 2036. In early 2020, the Prime Minister was forced to resign, and several members of the Parliament were replaced. Restrictions have been placed on foreign investments in Russian entities, while also redefining what a foreign agent is. The Putin government managed to place Navalny back in prison just in time for the elections. Subsequently, the government has cracked down on Navalny's network and frozen the party's assets to suppress their movement against him. All of these played a part in consolidating powers.

Second, the rise of Navalny as the internationally popular opposition to Putin. Alexi Navalny rose to popularity when his attempt to contest for the 2018 elections against Putin was quashed. In 2020, the poisoning of Navalny garnered him the limelight as the solid opponent for Putin. The Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) has represented Navalny in his absence by instigating protests and investigating corruption. In January 2021, Navalny released a video on YouTube of Putin's palace exposing the corruption within the party. This video gained three million views. Following his arrest, they organized protests in 198 towns and cities across the country. The network members have also shown genuine successes in local and regional electoral politics, particularly in the Siberian cities of Novosibirsk and Tomsk.

Third, the increasing international attention towards Russia. In the months since President Biden took office, Russia's actions at the borders, cybersecurity, and the mistreatment of Navalny in prison have been criticized by the US and its Western allies. The West has also placed sanctions condemning Navalny's arrest and his prison treatment. Along with this, there is an emphasis on domestic issues like rampant corruption, income inequality, and a weak economy within Russia. 

What does it mean?
President Putin now has the power to continue until 2036, and he would not let anything come in the way of it. The Russian government's approach to Navalny's organization would be made an example of what would happen to those that defy Putin. The multiple sanctions and the international criticism have not stopped Putin from taking drastic measures to suppress all forms of opposition. There is no other force within Russia that is as strong as Navalny that would replace him in his movement against the ruling party.  Would Putin then remain undisputed until anything happens to him? 

Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation seems to have served its purpose and now has become a liability to the members who were a part of it. And despite the suspension of the party's activities from 29 April, the members intend to uphold the spirit behind the movement and participate in their individual capacities. This could be seen as a stepping stone. Many individuals of the disbanded party seek to participate in the elections in their individual capacities while securing the safety of the people who supported them. The impact of Navalny's popularity on the people of Russia is unknown, and the "Smart Voting" strategies of the movement could still stand as a surprise factor in the September elections.

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